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Independent 28 March 2004

Global warming spirals upwards

By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor

Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have jumped abruptly, raising
fears that global warming may be accelerating out of control.

Measurements by US government scientists show that concentrations of the
gas, the main cause of the climate exchange, rose by a record amount over
the past 12 months. It is the third successive year in which they have
increased sharply, marking an unprecedented triennial surge.

Scientists are at a loss to explain why the rapid rise has taken place, but
fear that it could show the first signs that global warming is feeding on
itself, with rising temperatures causing increases in carbon dioxide, which
then go on to drive the thermometer even higher. That would be a deeply
alarming development, suggesting that this self-reinforcing heating could
spiral upwards beyond the reach of any attempts to combat it.

The development comes as official figures show that Britain's emissions of
the gas soared by three per cent last year, twice as fast as the year
before. The increase - caused by rising energy use and by burning less gas
and more coal in power stations - jeopardises the Government's target of
reducing emissions by 19 per cent by 2010.

It also coincides with a new bid to break the log jam over the Kyoto treaty
headed by Stephen Byers, the former transport secretary, who remains close
to Tony Blair.

Mr Byers is co-chairing with US Republican Senator Olympia Snowe a new
taskforce, run by the Institute of Public Policy Research and US and
Australian think tanks, which is charged with devising proposals that could
resolve the stalemate caused by President Bush's hostility to the treaty.

The carbon dioxide measurements have been taken from the 11,400ft summit of
Hawaii's Mauna Loa, whose enormous dome makes it the most substantial
mountain on earth, by scientists working for the US government's National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

They have been taking the readings from the peak - effectively breathalysing
the planet - for the past 46 years. It is an ideal site for the exercise,
2,000 miles from the nearest land and protected by freak climatic conditions
from pollution from Hawaii, more than two miles below.

The latest measurements, taken a week ago, showed that carbon dioxide had
reached about 379 parts per million (ppm), up from about 376ppm the year
before, from 373ppm in 2002 and about 371ppm in 2001. These represent three
of the four biggest increases on record (the other was in 1998), creating an
unprecedented sequence. They add up to a 64 per cent rise over the average
rate of growth over the past decade, of 1.8ppm a year.

The US scientists have yet to analyse the figures and stress that they could
be just a remarkable blip. Professor Ralph Keeling - whose father Charles
Keeling first set up the measurements from Mauna Loa - said: "We are moving
into a warmer world".